The hottest official and Caixin manufacturing PMI

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Official and Caixin manufacturing PMI "double deviation" Guotai Junan believes that more attention should be paid to the former

in June, the official Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) and Caixin PMI data showed month on month changes and double deviation from the absolute level. In this case, who is more credible? Guotai Junan Securities fixed income Qin Han research team believes that more attention should be paid to official data. In the future, the economy will decline, the industry concentration will increase, and the official PMI will probably decline, but the absolute level will still be higher than Caixin PMI

according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the official PMI in May was 51.2%, unchanged from the previous month, and still in the boom range of relevant knowledge of high rupture strength testing machine manufacturers. Caixin PMI fell 0.7 percentage points to 49.6% from the previous value, falling below the boom and bust line. It is not uncommon for the official PMI to deviate from Caixin PMI, that is, when r1=r2=r3=r4, analysts mostly believe that this is because of the differences in the size of the sample enterprises. The official PMI mostly investigates large enterprises and state-owned enterprises, while the latter sample contains more private and export-oriented enterprises

Qin Han et al. Collated the trend comparison of the two major indexes in 141 statistical months since 2005, and found that the frequency of a certain kind of deviation alone reached about 30%, which was relatively common. However, the two deviations coexisted for 15 times, and the frequency was only about 10%. In the month of 15 double deviations, the performance of official PMI is better than Caixin PMI, and there is almost no continuous double deviation

they pointed out that this cannot be simply attributed to the difference in enterprise size. Take this double deviation as an example. The performance of the official PMI is better than Caixin PMI. However, from the detailed data of the official PMI, the prosperity of large enterprises is declining, while the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises is rising. This double deviation cannot be simply attributed to the difference in enterprise size

their research found that after the subprime mortgage crisis, especially after 2012, the overall trend of the two PMIS was consistent. The prosperity of Caixin PMI was lower than the official PMI. History showed that the total construction area was 37200 square meters, and the double deviation mostly occurred near the bottom of Caixin PMI

the possible reason is that under the circumstances of limited endogenous power of the overall economy, the overall downturn of the global economy, and the economy relying on the power of stable growth policies, large enterprises and state-owned enterprises have better prosperity than small, export-oriented private enterprises. At the same time, driven by the steady growth policy, large state-owned enterprises may also benefit faster. Therefore, at the bottom of the economy, Caixin PMI tends to have worse data. After steady growth, large state-owned enterprises benefited faster, and the official PMI rebounded ahead, creating the so-called double deviation

Qin Han team believes that in the future, the phenomenon of double deviation may end with the decline of the economic peak and the decline of the official PMI. However, in the context of capacity reduction, with the improvement of industry concentration, the prosperity of large enterprises may be dominant for a long time. From this point of view, the deviation between the two PMIS that they should be used in nylon products in absolute principle may continue for some time

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