The hottest off-season comes in June, and the dema

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With the advent of the off-season in June, the demand is difficult to have a bright spot on a month on month basis

the stable spot price follows the surrounding black mood to reappear a high rise

the surrounding black performed strongly in May with the support of the supply side, and the glass followed the mood to rise. With the price support of spot traders, glass broke through the overall range of from to around 1350 in September. Trading enthusiasm rebounded as the futures price broke through the volatile market, and the main positions at the end of the month were nearly 40W hands, at the peak of the year

spot performance is acceptable, and manufacturers' market voice is improved under the downstream low inventory structure. In May, the spot price of Shahe generally moved up by yuan per ton to around 1250 yuan/ton compared with April, and the disk futures price has increased by about 100 yuan/ton. The outbound situation is general. The overall de stocking speed of the industry is slower than that of last year, but it is still declining year-on-year. In retrospect, there have been two high water rises this year. The last time it appeared was at the time of black mood mania in January, with the highest premium of up to 200 yuan/ton. However, in view of the liquidity of varieties, the high water rise situation guided the black turn to gradually converge. In the future, it is difficult for glass supply and demand to have bright spots, and it is necessary to maintain the short thinking and wait for the return

soda ash is tight and the cost of raw materials has moved up

we see that the linkage between industry inventory and price has weakened since this year. In previous years, the inventory of glass manufacturers was the best reverse indicator of prices, but this linkage has been greatly weakened this year. There are two main reasons for this phenomenon: first, the low downstream inventory leads to the increased voice of manufacturers; Second, the interference at the raw material end is intensified

after the sharp decline of soda ash after the Spring Festival, the price of soda ash has risen rapidly since May. We have made an in-depth analysis in our annual report that with the peak supply of soda ash, the price volatility of soda ash will be greatly enhanced. Moreover, under the circumstances of high construction and pollution, the price of soda ash is easy to rise but difficult to fall

since May, the price of soda ash in various places has increased by about 100 yuan/ton, corresponding to an increase of 30 yuan/ton in glass cost. However, considering that the supply and demand of terminals are not strong, and the profits of glass manufacturers are quite abundant, the cost factor is expected to be difficult to be effectively transmitted to the price, and the leaders' meeting of central and Eastern European countries will be held. At present, the overhaul of soda ash is mostly seasonal, and the supply of heavy soda is not in short supply. The price rise speculation of upstream raw materials is difficult to continue

the off-season comes in June, and the demand is month on month. 2. It is difficult to remove the antirust grease on the exposed surface.

the demand for glass in the first half of the year was relatively stable. However, with the decline of real estate sales and the arrival of the traditional off-season, we are not optimistic about the future trend of glass

first of all, it can be seen from both the frequency of the Bureau of statistics and the daily high-frequency transaction data that real estate sales are currently declining. As a real estate terminal product, the long-term weakening demand for glass is relatively certain. However, considering the developers' rush, the inflection point of demand may lag slightly. Secondly, from a seasonal perspective, the month has entered the low season of traditional demand for glass. And from our recent research on downstream deep processing orders, the order situation is not optimistic

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