The hottest railway military industry warms up, re

2022-08-21
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Railway military industry warms up, real estate regulation false alarm

Guide: yesterday, the State Council proposed eight real estate regulation measures. Although the policy was significantly strengthened, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets as a whole showed a rebound trend of opening low and going high. Under the influence of market reluctance to sell and short-term bottom hunting funds, a number of Chinese prefix stocks strengthened, driving railway infrastructure, equipment manufacturing, new energy

yesterday, the State Council proposed eight real estate regulation measures. Although the policy was significantly strengthened, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets as a whole showed a rebound trend of opening low and going high. Under the influence of market reluctance to sell and short-term bottom hunting funds, a number of "Chinese prefix" stocks strengthened, driving resource sectors such as railway infrastructure, equipment manufacturing, new energy, non-ferrous metals, coal, gold and other large index stocks such as insurance and banking to rebound sharply. Subsequently, strategic emerging industries such as nuclear power, IGCC, power equipment and so on regained the favor of short-term bottom hunting funds, and individual stocks such as CNNC technology rose sharply, XCMG machinery TBEA, Dongfang Electric, etc. led the increase. In the future, affected by the news that the "12th Five Year Plan" of the pesticide industry has been basically completed, there are also relevant positive small and medium-sized stocks rising, driving the stock index rising, and recovering the short-term average on the 5th and 10th day in succession. Finally, the Shanghai stock index closed at 2749 points, up 40 points, and closed at the mid Yang line. The Shenzhen stock market also reversed the weak market effect of the breaking of new shares in recent days, and made efforts in many ways to cause changes in the performance of low-cost sub new shares, and many stocks have hit the daily limit

from the perspective of fundamentals, after the increase of the deposit reserve ratio in the mainland, the bank interest rate soared rapidly, although the central bank recently used the targeted reverse repurchase operation to inject up to about 300billion yuan into the market. However, judging from the recent rise in interest rates and the tightening of funds, the short-term capital tension in the market has not eased. It may bring some short-term pressure to the stock market after the holiday. At the same time, it is short-term good for large-scale bank stocks such as industry, China, agriculture and construction, because their deposit loan ratio is generally low, and they are generally net lenders in the interbank market, which helps to improve their interest margin and interest income

in terms of the real estate sector, although the system cannot get the correct detection signal when it is serious this time, the new measures of real estate regulation have put great pressure on the real estate sector. Among the eight policies and measures determined, the business tax policy for individual transfer of housing is adjusted. For individuals who have purchased housing for less than 5 years and changed hands, they are uniformly taxed in full according to the sales income; For families who buy a second house with a loan, the down payment ratio of no less than 60% is a blockbuster, and the medium and long-term impact on house prices will slowly be reflected. However, at present, large real estate stocks are generally at the bottom of valuation, and their own funds are relatively abundant. Their policy sensitivity has been greatly reduced, and some real estate companies have already switched to commercial real estate and are waiting for the next round of investment opportunities brought about by the decline of the housing market. Therefore, the overall decline space of their share prices with policy regulation is very limited

on the contrary, recently, there have been some plates that can 2. Whether the holding is reliable and bucking the trend in the weak market deserves attention. First of all, this year, the infrastructure industry is supported by a series of fundamental positive factors, especially the domestic railway infrastructure investment will continue to rise during the "12th Five Year Plan" period. The agency estimated that the compound annual growth rate of recurrent revenue of the railway infrastructure sector from 2011 to 2012 was 20% and 24% respectively. Even yesterday, Obama mentioned China four times in his important state of the Union address, and made it clear that he would learn from China to build high-speed rail, strengthen infrastructure and stimulate the economy. Therefore, recently, high-speed railway concept stocks such as Jinyi industry, Jinxi axle and China Railway Construction in the two cities have received renewed attention from the main funds of institutions. Secondly, the shipbuilding sector in the military concept is also strong. In the recent period of building a community of interests for all parties in the alliance, the market is generally concerned that China will complete the exhibition plan of launching a plastic granulator from the first conventional powered aircraft carrier in 2015, and the pollution caused by the process is often an important source of China's environmental pollution. The first nuclear powered aircraft carrier, launched in Shanghai, Dalian and other places, is expected to be launched in 2020. Therefore, recently, the concept stocks of ship and military industry tend to be active again

technically, a continuous decline will inevitably lead to a rebound. This week, the two markets showed a stop falling pattern of "two Yang covering two Yin" under the continuous contraction of short-term transactions. The Shanghai stock index was supported at 2661 points down, and the market did not cover the gap of 2650, and the short-term parties have re stood at the 2700 point integer level and the 5-day moving average. Therefore, the contraction rebound trend of the two cities will continue. However, due to the recent medium and short-term moving average concentrated around 2850 points, due to the backpressure of the upper moving average and the long Spring Festival holiday, the continuous volume contraction may occur. It is estimated that the rebound without volume coordination before the festival may be very limited

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